Content is everywhere, governance is slow to change, and technology expectations keep climbing—association learning businesses are feeling squeezed. Most are still operating like catalog providers in a market that now needs architects.
In this episode of the Leading Learning Podcast, co-hosts Celisa Steele and Jeff Cobb share a Rumelt-style diagnosis based on conversations with 27 association CEOs. They unpack the issues hollowing out the old education model—and what learning leaders can do to design trustworthy, employer-aligned, tech-enabled learning pathways for the future.
If you want clarity on the current landscape and what it means for where your learning business needs to go next, tune in.
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Celisa Steele: [00:00:03] If you want to grow the reach, revenue, and impact of your learning business, you’re in the right place. I’m Celisa Steele.
Jeff Cobb: [00:00:10] I’m Jeff Cobb, and this is the Leading Learning Podcast.
Celisa Steele: [00:00:17] If you lead or work in a learning business, you already know the ground is shifting under your feet—slowly in some places and breathtakingly fast in others. The familiar offerings—conferences, catalogs of courses, CE tied to licensure—still work. Sort of. But that model is hollowing out.
Jeff Cobb: [00:00:37] This year we spoke with 27 association CEOs about the role education and learning play in their mission, their economics, and their future. One thing we heard remarkably consistently is that the old model isn’t broken enough to force change, but it’s definitely not strong enough to power the future.
Celisa Steele: [00:00:56] We have an executive briefing called “Where Mission and Margin Meet” that combines what we learned from those CEO conversations with some of our own observations. In this episode, we’re going to share a Rumelt-style diagnosis of the core problems many associations face in their learning businesses: the shift toward employer-driven demand, the explosion of supply, the drag of governance, the technology issues, and more. Think of this as a bonus audio chapter to accompany the executive briefing.
Jeff Cobb: [00:01:29] We hope this diagnosis gives you useful insight, and, for a fuller picture of how associations are thinking about learning and education, we encourage you to download and read the full executive briefing. But let’s dive in.
About Richard Rumelt
Celisa Steele: [00:01:41] I said we were going to do a Rumelt-style diagnosis. At the beginning of the conversation, we should explain who Rumelt is, what a Rumelt-style diagnosis is.
Jeff Cobb: [00:01:51] That probably would be helpful. Richard Rumelt is one of our favorite strategic thinkers and writers on strategy. We lean on him pretty heavily in our own work in developing strategy for organizations. He has a very elegant and deceptively simple approach to strategy in which he breaks things down into three key elements: diagnosis, guiding policy, and coherent actions. Diagnosis is what we’ll focus on today. Diagnosis means really understanding the situation. Until you do that, you can’t—or at least you shouldn’t—start making the choices that are going to allow you to solve the problems or pursue the opportunities that exist in that situation.
Celisa Steele: [00:02:38] Jeff, you said “deceptively simple,” and that’s a very good way to characterize Rumelt’s work. So much of good strategy is deceptively simple. Understanding the situation to get to a diagnosis involves simplifying the complex. The situation, everything that’s happening in the world and the environment in which any learning business operates, all of that’s relatively complex. But you have to be able to home in on what exists and what’s evolving that really matters and makes a difference for your learning business.
Jeff Cobb: [00:03:14] Once you’ve got that diagnosis, you can move to creating what Rumelt describes as the guiding policy, which is the overarching approach to what you’re going to do, given that diagnosis. How will you make choices to solve the problem or take advantage of the opportunity that’s before you? The guiding policy can be boiled down to just a few sentences that say, “This is how we’re going to go about our work.”
Celisa Steele: [00:03:42] Then the coherent actions are going to translate that guiding policy into the trackable and manageable things that need to be done. One of Rumelt’s key insights about strategy is that you can’t separate it from execution. For strategy to work, things have to be done. That’s why coherent actions are part of what he covers. But, for today, we’re going to focus on diagnosis, not the guiding policy, not the coherent actions.
Jeff Cobb: [00:04:09] And we’re going to base the diagnosis on what we heard in the association CEO interviews and what we know from broader work with learning businesses.
Celisa Steele: [00:04:19] We’re focusing on the diagnosis because we believe that big parts of this diagnosis will apply broadly to many association learning businesses. The guiding policy and the coherent actions are going to be more specific to any given association. That said, for this to be a true diagnosis for your learning business, you’re going to need to go deeper on the points that we’re going to raise. You’re going to need to think about how they apply in your specific situation. But we do believe that the eight points we’re going to cover are broadly descriptive of the situation most association learning businesses are operating in. The first point in our diagnosis already came in the intro. It’s the observation that the old model still works well enough that it’s blocking reform.
The Old Model Works Well Enough to Block Reform
Jeff Cobb: [00:05:12] This is the classic, “We don’t have a ‘bleeding at the neck’ problem here” that you hear business leaders talk about. For decades, associations have been at the center of their professions’ learning ecosystems. They could charge reasonably for required CE or draw on member loyalty to get folks to come to conferences and courses. And they could make enough from that to fund the rest of the work that they do—or at least help to fund that work.
Celisa Steele: [00:05:39] More recently, we’re seeing attendance, renewals, and attention all dropping off. They can’t be counted on as certainly as they could be counted on in the past. Many associations aren’t getting the same level of attendance at conferences or the same number of enrollments in courses. Renewal isn’t necessarily a given anymore, and, on top of all that, simply getting member or learner attention has gotten much, much harder.
Jeff Cobb: [00:06:09] A lot of the leaders we spoke to said revenue from education is flat or even declining. At the same time, learner expectations are rising—they expect more polish and the latest and easiest tech. They expect convenience and speed. This slow bleed—remember it’s not a bleeding-at-the-neck problem—is creating a false sense of stability. The business isn’t imploding. It doesn’t look like an immediate emergency. As a result, boards and executive teams may be postponing fundamental or structural changes, postponing ponying up the investment needed for education if it’s going to continue to play the significant role in the association’s value and revenue structure that it has in the past.
Market Power Has Shifted from the Individual Learner to the Employer
Celisa Steele: [00:07:00] So that’s the first point. The second point in our diagnosis is a shift in power and focus from individual learners to employers. Many of the CEOs that we interviewed are seeing great potential in serving not just those individual learners but the employers where those individual learners work.
Jeff Cobb: [00:07:20] Arguably this has always been true—you may have an individual purchasing, but the employer has always been standing behind them as a source of reimbursement or at least as important in freeing up the time for the learner to participate. But the employer role is becoming more forefronted. A lot of companies, corporations, governmental agencies, whatever are looking to outside sources to support what they’re doing in training. Training is one of those things that can fluctuate up and down with economic conditions. If employers can look to an association in their field that has the expertise, that has the curricula that are going to serve their people, that’s incredibly valuable. And both employers and associations are starting to realize that value more now.
Supply Has Exploded; Authority Has Not
Celisa Steele: [00:08:07] That point leads into our third point in the diagnosis, which is that supply has exploded. There are so many more choices out there now, for both your B2C and B2B customers. Jeff, you were just talking about employers recognizing associations as potential sources for training. That’s true—but it’s also true that, in some markets, employers compete with the association. They have enough in-house staff working in L&D that they’re not going to necessarily turn to an association to help them with onboarding or upskilling. That’s one example of some competition, but there are many others.
Jeff Cobb: [00:08:44] Yes, the market’s flooded with free Webinars, YouTube videos, vendor academies, and massive open online courses. Now we’ve got AI, which can generate pretty much whatever you want in terms of a learning experience on demand. But, in the midst of that explosion of content and options, what’s scarce is trust. Some of the CEOs talked about their associations providing a stamp of quality in their marketplace, and many perceive trust as their last defensible advantage.
Celisa Steele: [00:09:17] A lot of associations are the owners or developers of standards, or they develop and own a certification. They often have peers or experts reviewing content. All of that contributes to that idea of being a stamp of quality. An association can say, “Hey, this material’s been vetted; it can therefore be trusted,” and that’s not necessarily true of a YouTube video or a ChatGPT answer, for example.
Jeff Cobb: [00:09:43] And we know credibility alone isn’t going to pay the bill for developing content. There’s been too much of a culture that’s developed over time among members of expecting to be trained or educated for free. Associations are caught between being a source but then also being a validator of quality, and, at the same time, they’re under tremendous pressure to offer content for free or inexpensively. It’s a difficult economic position to be in.
Celisa Steele: [00:10:12] What it takes to truly stand behind a stamp of quality can be quite expensive. The time and the energy that many people have to put into that review and validation can cost a lot. So we have exploding supply, and there’s this issue of trust, and, for the moment, associations tend to have an advantage there compared to the alternatives.
Portfolio Logic Is Broken
Jeff Cobb: [00:10:33] Our fourth point in the diagnosis is that portfolio logic is broken.
Celisa Steele: [00:10:41] What we mean by this is that many associations have landed on their current portfolio unintentionally. It wasn’t built intentionally. They’ve inherited a patchwork of legacy programs. Maybe there’s not a whole lot of apparent logic—economic/pricing logic and logic in what content is covered, about what’s in the portfolio. There’s an attitude of “We have these things; we inherited them; we’re going to keep them running.” A number of the CEOs that we talked with said they have really big catalogs, but only a small percentage is being used.
Jeff Cobb: [00:11:18] So much gets driven by committees in associations or individual subject matter experts who advocate for one course or another. As you said, it turns into a patchwork of offerings. The typical association portfolio is going to contain maybe one big or a few profitable offerings—a conference or a certification. Then there will be some break-even offerings—maybe a little online learning or some Webinars. And then there’s typically a long tail of low-margin or flat-out loss-making programs. There’s often no disciplined pruning. It’s very hard for organizations to sunset anything.
Celisa Steele: [00:11:58] One of the CEOs said that the missing capability is “purposeful abandonment.” I like that phrasing: purposeful abandonment. It’s a nice, fancy way of saying “sunsetting.”
Jeff Cobb: [00:12:09] We’ve talked about four of our eight points so far. One, the old model is chugging along, not well enough to pave the way to the future but also not badly enough to force reform. Two, market power has shifted to employers. Three, supply has exploded, but authority and trust have not, and there’s still a lot of authority in associations. And then, four, the portfolio logic is broken. Now the fifth point in our diagnosis is that technology and specifically AI are changing both production and consumption and doing it faster than most associations feel able to retool.
Technology and AI Are Rewriting Production and Consumption Faster than Associations Can Retool
Celisa Steele: [00:12:54] At this point, it’s easy for a learner to turn to ChatGPT or an equivalent, maybe upload some source materials or point to an association publication and say, “Hey, give me some questions to help me prepare for the exam” or “Help explain this concept to me.” Those are things that associations have traditionally, historically done. They’ve provided the exam prep. They’ve created microlearning. So all of this raises an existential question for associations.
Jeff Cobb: [00:13:23] It really does. I talked to a CEO who did this herself—and good for her for doing it. She thought, “We’re offering this exam prep toward a certification, but maybe a learner could just go ask AI to create that prep.” So she tried that, and, yes indeed, AI created some completely viable exam prep for that certification. That shows that AI isn’t just about delivery efficiency and being able to crank out content. It’s also about AI flooding the market with credible-looking instruction, which weakens associations’ claim to be the trusted source—unless associations build technical literacy and proprietary data advantages. Back to trust. There’s trust and authority, and associations need to be able to use technology and AI tools to help surface and reinforce their trust and authority.
Celisa Steele: [00:14:15] That points naturally to an idea of an association taking all of its vetted content and creating a locked-down AI model that only draws on that vetted material. At least two CEOs that we talked with were thinking along those lines, of creating a cordoned-off large language model to deliver immediate and personalized learning support that is grounded in vetted, trusted content. But, at least for those two, that was just an idea at this point.
Jeff Cobb: [00:14:47] We’re seeing some associations implement AI, but more are still in that “just talking about it” phase. I’m also a little concerned that most of them are thinking about private AI in terms of a member benefit or something they build into their Web site. I’m not sure they’re thinking about it as professional development, as education, as something that could have a business model associated with it.
Governance and Culture Reward Continuity Over Experimentation
Celisa Steele: [00:15:13] The sixth point in our diagnosis deals with governance. Along with governance, we’ll throw culture in there as well. A lot of associations are structured in a way, governed in a way that rewards the status quo. It rewards continuity rather than experimentation or innovation.
Jeff Cobb: [00:15:32] During these interviews and in some other conversations I’ve had with CEOs, I’m hearing leaders of organizations question whether they should even be in the education business because they’re having such a hard time with governance and culture, feeling like they’re having to fight against governance and culture. And, in the meantime, for-profit competitors are running circles around these associations.
Celisa Steele: [00:16:00] The ability to experiment is going to be critical for association learning businesses who want to move beyond diagnosing the situation and get to those other parts of strategy that we mentioned at the beginning—the guiding policy and a set of coherent actions.
Jeff Cobb: [00:16:10] One CEO I talked to mentioned a radical restructuring of his organization, including looking at how committees are formed and dissolved. They had to change bylaws so they could be more responsive and agile. Another talked about a constant battle to cut back on committees, but no sooner do they cut some back, than others spring up.
External Understanding of Associations’ Role in Education and Learning Is Underdeveloped
Celisa Steele: [00:16:31] I remember that. He said it was like playing Whack-a-Mole. That question of whether associations should remain in the learning business at all is interesting because we asked the CEOs if associations were to stop offering education, what would the result be? Several of them said, somewhat sadly, that they’re not sure that people would miss it. Would anyone even notice if they were to stop? Personally, I think that, for many associations, if they were to stop offering education, that would be missed. It would be noticed. Not always, but often. That said, even if it were to be noticed, I do think there is a broader recognition issue at play. Associations aren’t recognized in the way that they perhaps should be when you think about the pivotal role that they play in adult lifelong learning, continuing education, and professional development, all that training that needs to happen after someone completes higher education—or not even higher education, if a degree isn’t involved. There’s a lot of work and value that associations are delivering, but it’s not broadly recognized by society. And that’s the seventh point in the diagnosis: The understanding of associations’ role in education and learning is underdeveloped outside of the association world.
Jeff Cobb: [00:17:54] It really is. It’s an interesting thought experiment. I suspect that if you were to turn off the tap completely on all association education, people would notice immediately that it’s no longer there because associations are playing a critical societal role in adult lifelong learning. Lifelong learning is increasingly recognized as essential in the world and the economy in which we all live. But you don’t often hear association CEOs out there talking about that and making that point. You don’t see associations referenced in articles around lifelong learning. I’ve noticed this for years. One of the CEOs made the point that so much of what associations do tends to happen in back rooms and conversations about advocacy that happen in the hallways of conferences. So what associations are doing is not necessarily visible in the way that you might see, for example, a university promoting what they’re doing with continuing education and professional development. For the university, that’s their whole identity; that’s their business versus it only being part of what associations do. Universities are going to be out there in the press and media around that. They are out there in the press and media around that. But a university doesn’t have the kind of profession/field/industry depth that an association has or that ongoing relationship and contact with a set of members, the people who are working in that field or profession.
Capabilities and Capacity Are Real Constraints
Celisa Steele: [00:19:28] The eighth and final point in our diagnosis of the current situation for learning businesses has to do with capabilities and capacity. We heard clearly from most of the CEOs that they know they need to be more data-driven. They know they need to have some sort of organizing concept—a competency model—that drives what they’re offering, and they need to map their offerings to that organizing idea. They know that they need to engage with employers and get crystal clear on what those employers need and value. They know that they need modern technology that’s going to help create that wonderfully smooth user experience and provide ready access to rich data that they can mine internally to help make decisions. All that is clear. But having access to the money, the know-how, the time, the energy to do all of those things, that’s less clear.
Jeff Cobb: [00:20:27] That loops us back to the first point we made around the historical, traditional model. It’s not broken enough for boards and executive teams to say, “All hands on deck! We must invest the time and money in steering the ship in a different direction—hiring more people, hiring people with different capabilities, putting the technology and processes in place to be able to deliver excellent, meaningful, modern learning experiences.” All that is different from standing up a catalog and running people through an e-commerce system or standing up an event and taking registrations.
Celisa Steele: [00:21:05] You tied this back to the first point. It also ties to the sixth point, which was about governance and culture, because part of what’s at play is that acting in the way that these CEOs know they need to act is often not what’s familiar and comfortable for associations. This requires an agile mindset. It requires an ability to make decisions quickly and then to act quickly. It takes experimentation and being okay with some failures as long as you’re learning from them. And a lot of what’s needed to get the capabilities and capacity that these associations need can be slowed down by those governing structures that are committee-heavy or rely on set monthly meetings, and maybe decisions can’t really be made outside of that meeting timetable.
Jeff Cobb: [00:21:55] It gets back to the title of the executive briefing: “Where Mission and Margin Meet.” There’s a certain culture, a certain infrastructure, a certain operating model that goes with a mission-driven organization, like an association, that tends to be different from what you might find in, say, a commercial training provider or any solely revenue-driven business. Associations have to balance mission and margin, and that’s a leadership challenge. It’s one that many of the CEOs we interviewed are facing up to and wrestling with—and good for them. Unfortunately, more broadly across the association sector, that’s not necessarily happening.
Celisa Steele: [00:22:36] We’re seeing association learning businesses grapple with that mission-and-margin question that you just pointed to, Jeff. They’re thinking about how do they make sure that their portfolio is supporting their mission without draining the organization, maybe even contributing back to the organization? And how are they making sure that what’s in that portfolio truly is what should be there? What will serve the learners, what will serve the employers, what will serve society at large?
The Diagnosis in Brief
Jeff Cobb: [00:23:04] To sum the diagnosis up, the individual member-retail model that once sustained associations is giving way to more employer-driven demand.
Celisa Steele: [00:23:14] Abundant and often free digital offerings now available have created a very different dynamic in the marketplace. There is so much choice now than there was a decade or two decades ago, certainly more than 50 or even 100 years ago when some associations were being formed. And, because of all that competition, it’s noisier and harder to even get the attention of your learners. Even if you do get their attention, even if they do recognize that they need to learn something, you’re just one option in a field of many options.
Jeff Cobb: [00:23:51] Credibility remains high for associations at this point, and it helps them stand out for now, but that credibility, trust, and authority need to be bolstered and guarded.
Celisa Steele: [00:24:03] There are governance issues and cultural habits that may be holding associations back from addressing the competition, from pursuing opportunities like B2B models. There are patchwork portfolios that need to be made more intentional. There’s an underinvestment in technology, including AI, and in other aspects of capacity and capabilities, and that underinvestment is preventing organizations from being able to adapt as they need to.
Jeff Cobb: [00:24:33] The strategic core of the problem is a structural mismatch. Associations still operate as catalog providers in a market that now needs architects—architects designing trustworthy, employer-aligned, tech-enabled learning pathways and infrastructure rather than simply maintaining a catalog of programs.
Wrap-Up
Celisa Steele: [00:25:01] Be sure to check out the executive briefing that’s based on these interviews with association CEOs.
Jeff Cobb: [00:25:18] If you enjoy the Leading Learning Podcast, please share this episode or another with a colleague or co-worker you feel would appreciate and get value from it. And please spread the word about the executive briefing too.
Celisa Steele: [00:25:31] What we covered today is part of a larger story. The CEOs that we spoke with offered sharp and honest insight about what’s holding their education businesses back and what’s needed to move forward.
Jeff Cobb: [00:25:44] We hope today’s episode and the executive briefing spark some internal conversations and maybe some overdue shifts in your own learning business.
Celisa Steele: [00:25:52] Thanks again—and see you next time on the Leading Learning Podcast.
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